This paper examines a new time series method for very short-term wind speed forecasting. The time series forecasting model is based on Bayesian theory and structural break modeling, which could incorporate domain knowledge about wind speed as a prior. Besides this Bayesian structural break model predicts wind speed as a set of possible values, which is different from classical time series model...

This paper analyses the pure time-series properties of doctors’ fees in Ireland to assess whether a structural change in the series is observed at the time of the change in reimbursement in 1989. Such a break would be consistent with doctors responding to the reimbursement change in a manner predicted by supplier-induced-demand behaviour and would provide indirect evidence that such inducement ...

In this paper, we have considered three important variables concerning COVID-19 viz., (i) the number of daily new cases, (ii) total and (iii) deaths, proposed a modelling procedure, so that nature trend in these series could be studied appropriately then used for identifying current phase pandemic including containment, if happening /happened, any country. The procedure gives due consideration ...

A Chow test for structural breaks in the surface temperature series is used to investigate two common claims about global warming. Quirk (2009) proposed that the increase in Australian temperature from 1910 to the present was largely confined to a regime-shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) between 1976 and 1979. The test finds a step change in both Australian and global temperature t...

In this paper, we propose a minimum LM unit root test that endogenously determines a structural break in intercept and trend. Critical values are provided, and size and power properties are compared to the endogenous one-break unit root test of Zivot and Andrews (1992). Nunes, Newbold, and Kuan (1997) and Lee and Strazicich (2001) previously demonstrated that the Zivot and Andrews test exhibits...