Dating business cycles entails ascertaining economy-wide turning points. Broadly speaking, there are two approaches in the literature. The first approach, which dates to Burns and Mitchell (1946), is to identify turning points individually in a large number of series, then to look for a common date that could be called an aggregate turning point. The second approach, which has been the focus of...

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In ...

Within the large body of research in complex network analysis, an important topic is the temporal evolution of networks. Existing approaches aim at analyzing the evolution on the global and the local scale, extracting properties of either the entire network or local patterns. In this paper, we focus on detecting clusters of temporal snapshots of a network, to be interpreted as eras of evolution...

We study the dynamics of one dimensional iterative maps in the regime of fully developed chaos. Introducing the concept of the turning points we extract from the chaotic trajectories the corresponding turning point trajectories which represent a strongly correlated part of the chaotic dynamics of the system. The density of turning points exhibits step like structures at the positions of the uns...

The extent to which social bonds and turning points influence criminal activity has been the focus of much empirical research. However, there have been few empirical studies exploring social bonds and turning points and offending for those who have experienced emerging adulthood, a recently identified stage of the life course. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health...

Why and when do turning points occur? How are they prepared? What are the choices before us when it comes to economic and social development policies? What is the role of culture in development? Do ideas play a role? What are the interests behind the ideas? The present paper tries to answer these and other questions and compares the advantages and disadvantages of global development theories wi...

This paper considers single-degree-of-freedom, closed-loop linkages with a designated input angle and one design parameter. For a fixed value of the design parameter, a linkage has turning points (dead-input singularities), which break the motion curve into branches such that the motion along each branch can be driven monotonically from the input. As the design parameter changes, the number of ...