This paper presents a method for uncertainty analysis of prognostics with a focus on electronics subject to random vibration. First we identify uncertainty sources and types: measurement uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, failure criteria uncertainty, and future usage uncertainty. Next, we present an approach to determine the uncertainty in a prognostic analysis. Our approach utilizes a sensit...

In Hall's reformulation of the uncertainty principle, the entropic uncertainty relation occupies a core position and provides the first nontrivial bound for the information exclusion principle. Based upon recent developments on the uncertainty relation, we present new bounds for the information exclusion relation using majorization theory and combinatoric techniques, which reveal further charac...

Recent studies show that multimodel combinations improve hydroclimatic predictions by reducing model uncertainty. Given that climate forecasts are available from multiple climate models, which could be ingested with multiple watershed models, what is the best strategy to reduce the uncertainty in streamflow forecasts? To address this question, we consider three possible strategies: (1) reduce t...

Cognitive restructuring and exposure therapy have been integrated into a highly structured package for the treatment of social phobia termed cognitive-behavioral group therapy (CBGT). The first two sessions of CBGT for social phobia are devoted to training clients in the basic tenets of cognitive therapy. Clients learn to identify their own irrational thoughts and to challenge the content of th...

On the example of physics, we show that the traditional one-level description is not completely adequate. For a more adequate structure, a hierarchical description of uncertainty is necessary, which supplements the more traditional first-order uncertainty with second-order, third-order and more sophisticated models. In particular, the second-order approach seems to provide a bridge between prob...

Zbigniew Puchała, Łukasz Rudnicki, Karol Życzkowski Institute of Theoretical and Applied Informatics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bałtycka 5, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University, ul. Reymonta 4, 30-059 Kraków, Poland Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warszawa, Poland Freiburg Insitute for Advanced Studies, Alb...

This paper introduces a novel boundary integral approach of shape uncertainty quantification for the Helmholtz scattering problem in the framework of the so-called parametric method. The key idea is to form a low-dimensional spatial embedding within the family of uncertain boundary deformations via the Coarea formula. The embedding, essentially, encompasses any irregular behavior of the boundar...

We study the effect of the uncertainty in the induced microseismic event locations and origin times on the inverted fluid pressure diffusivity. We use a probabilistic physical model that directly ties fluid pressure in the subsurface during the injection to observations of induced microseismic events at the monitoring receiver array to track the propagation of uncertainty in the forward model a...