BACKGROUND Ageing nations have growing needs for end of life care, but these have never been projected in detail. We analysed past trends in place of death (1974-2003) and projected likely trends to 2030 in England and Wales and from these need for care. METHODS Mortality trends and forecasts were obtained from official statistics. Future scenarios were modelled using recent five-year trends ...

OBJECTIVES To project the number of people aged 45-64 years with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to diabetes and related costs (lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue); and lost gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to diabetes in Australia from 2015 to 2030. DESIGN A simulation study of how the number of people aged 45-64 years with diabetes increases over time ...

The WHO's "Global Strategy for Women's, Children's, and Adolescents' Health 2016-2030" (GS-WCAH 2016-2030) is a comprehensive plan developed to improve the lives of women, children, and adolescents. Due to the success in the creation, ratification, and advocacy of the GS-WCAH 2016-2030, the clear health outcome disparities between males and females, and the general absence of male health from e...

OBJECTIVES To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45-64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates house...

PURPOSE Estimates of the incidences of severe visual impairment and blindness (SVI/B) and their causes are key to good health service planning. Thus, the database of Germany's largest state's blind registry was used to estimate current incidence rates (IR) and to project rates for Germany in 2010 and 2030. METHODS The sample consisted of 3328 blind/severely visually impaired individuals newly...

Results: Between 1993 and 2014, the mean BMI among Ghanaian women increased by 3 kg/m and by 2030, the average Ghanaian woman will have a BMI of around 27.3 Kg/m. Underweight prevalence has decreased by about 45% from 11.3% in 1993/1998 to 6.2% in 2014 and projected to reach 2.2% by 2030. Obesity on the other hand has seen significant increase of over 400% from 3.4% in 1993 to 15.3% in 2014. By...

Understanding the underlying dynamics of population change is critical for national planning. This analysis explores South Africa’s fertility, mortality and migration outlooks, with a particular emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding migration. Using the International Futures (IFs) model and data from the South African 2011 National Census data, we simulated three potential population futures ...