Abstract We exploit detailed transaction and position data for a sample of long-short equity hedge funds to study the trading activity fundamental investors. find that exhibit skill in opening positions, but they close their positions too early, thereby forgoing about one-third trades’ potential profitability. explain this behavior with limits arbitrage: early order reallocate capital more prof...

In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock’s return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk in realtime, recurrent bubbles and crashes can arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow ...

This paper documents that political factors can be linked to the part of stock prices that cannot be explained by the standard present value models. The non-fundamental component of stock market index appears to be significantly influenced by the political orientation of the president and his approval rating, election cycle and military conflicts. The findings presented here indicate that there...

We analyze time series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence i...

The paper analyses a simplified version of a Glosten-Milgrom style specialist security trading model with trade-timing. In a setting where traders are differentially informed, if the best-informed investors have a sufficiently strong or weak impact on prices then the investors with the strongest impact on prices delay their investment strategically, pretending to be the low-impact types. JEL Cl...

This paper aims at improved accuracy in testing for long-run predictability in noisy series, such as stock market returns. Long-horizon regressions have previously been the dominant approach in this area. We suggest an alternative method that yields more accurate results. We find evidence of predictability in S&P 500 returns even when the confidence intervals are constructed using model-free me...

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and government bond spreads (GBS), with regard sovereign risk. practical focus evaluate whether CDS market effectively leading or lagging in risk price discovery process during last decade monetary easing. analysis extends all “sensitive” countries Eurozone, so-called “PII...

In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock’s return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk in real-time, recurrent bubbles and crashes can arise. These effect are stronger when agents allow ...

This study examines asymmetric and the lag effects of oil price, gas exchange rate on stock performance Malaysian sub-industries. Using company-level data multi factor asset pricing models, this found that rate, common systematic risk factors such as market, size, book-to-market have significant sub-industries, but these exposures remain heterogeneous. Oil price show strong asymmetrical impacts...