In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a blend of the flexible least squares and Kalman filter techniques. The out-of-sample forecasting perf...

We test for the presence of time-varying parameters (TVP) in the long-run dynamics of energy prices for oil, natural gas and coal, within a standard class of mean-reverting models. We also propose residual-based diagnostic tests and examine out-of-sample forecasts. In-sample LR tests support the TVP model for coal and gas but not for oil, though companion diagnostics suggest that the model is t...

Purpose Spine surgeons have increasingly used intraoperative application of topical vancomycin powder (TVP) to prevent surgical site infections (SSIs). The goals of this study were to define the rate of pharmacological adverse reaction to TVP in young patients undergoing posterior spinal surgery and to summarise institutional variation in TVP dosing. Methods This retrospective observational s...

OBJECTIVES We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of universal mass vaccination (UMV) against influenza compared with a targeted vaccine program (TVP) for selected age and risk groups in the United States. METHODS We modeled costs and outcomes of seasonal influenza with UMV and TVP, taking a societal perspective. The US population was stratified to model age-specific (< 5, 5-17, 18-49, 50-64, an...

1. A study has been made of the zinc, copper, iron, manganese, protein (nitrogen X 6.25) and phytic acid contents of nineteen soya-bean-based textured-vegetable-protein (TVP) meat-extenders and meat-substitutes and of three "ready-prepared" canned meals containing TVP. 2. Phytate analysis was performed using a newly-developed method based on Holt's (1955) procedure. This method enabled the phyt...

9:55 – 10:40 Rodney Strachan (University of Queensland) Reducing Dimensions in Large Time-varying Parameter VAR Models This paper proposes a new approach to estimating high dimensional time varying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). Such models are rarely used with more than 4-5 variables. However recent work has shown the advantages of modelling VARs with large numbers of varia...

We present a theory for reduced-order modelling of linear time-varying systems, together with efficient numerical methods for application to large systems. The technique, called TVP (Time-Varying Padk), is applicable to deterministic as well as noise analysis of many types of communication subsystems, such as mixers and switched-capacitor filters, for which existing model reduction techniques c...