A CLUMondo Model-Based Multi-Scenario Land-Use Change Simulation in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Land-use changes have profound effects on both socio-economic development and the environment. As a result, to optimize land-use planning management, models are often employed identify patterns their associated driving forces. In this work, physical socioeconomic factors within Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) from 2000 2015 were identified, integrated, used as foundation for CLUMondo model. Subsequently, Markov model combined predict in 2035. Natural growth (NG), economic (ED), ecological protection (EP), coordinated social (CSE) scenarios set according date assessment. Results showed that: (1) From 2015, urban land increased by 8139.5 km2 (3.93%), paddy field decreased 7315.8 (8.78%). The Kappa coefficient of was 0.86, indicating that can be YRDUA. (2) When trend simulate landscape 2035, structure varied among four simulated scenarios. Specifically, 47.6% 39.6% 32.9% 23.2% (CSE). still primary landscape, with 35.85% NG, 36.95% ED, 37.01% EP, 36.96% CSE. Furthermore, under all scenarios, pattern tended simplify fragment, while connectivity equilibrium diminished. results provided herein intended elucidate law agglomeration aid promoting sustainable development.