A Model for Aedes aegypti Infestation According to Meteorological Variables: case of Caratinga (Minas Gerais - Brazil)

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are the vector of diseases such as dengue, zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever among others. All stages development, eggs, larvae, pupa, adult species have its population modulated by meteorological variables, precipitation temperature through affecting productivity breeding sites, metabolic processes, Since females responsible for transmitting virus, becomes a direct indicator risk infection. For this reason, some ongoing surveillance programs based on female capture. In turn, all development temperature, processes work, field data capture was used to evaluate if dynamics model under effect weather would be able forecast population. The nonlinear dynamic system comprises: (1) four equations populations mosquito, designed program; (2) parametric dependencies rates mean weekly accumulated precipitation. modelled with aim simplicity fewer number parameters possible. Temperature dependence is values related literature assumption existence optimum rates, getting worse extreme temperatures. which barely treated in experiments monotonic described power law estimated orders magnitude from literature. By comparison an entomological Ae. captured public health program city Caratinga (Minas Gerais, Brazil), showed significant correlation (R = 0.75). result shows that approach, refined, can provide forecasting size.