Additivity, utility, and subjective probability
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Countable Additivity and Subjective Probability
While there are several arguments on either side, it is far from clear as to whether or not countable additivity is an acceptable axiom of subjective probability. I focus here on de Finetti’s central argument against countable additivity and provide a new Dutch book proof of the principle, to argue that if we accept the Dutch book foundations of subjective probability, countable additivity is a...
متن کاملAxiomatic Foundations of Expected Utility and Subjective Probability
This chapter provides a critical review of the theories of decision making under risk and under uncertainty and the notion of choice-based subjective probabilities. It includes formal statements and discussions of the various models, including their analytical frameworks, the corresponding axiomatic foundations, and the representations.
متن کاملScoring-Rule Procedures for Eliciting Subjective Probability and Utility Functions
This chapter considers a situation in which the elicitor wants to discover the precise form of a function which characterizes a subject’s preferences or probabilistic beliefs. All of the "scoring-rule" elicitation procedures developed have a common structure: the subject’s expected utility depends on a function reported by the subject, and the elicitor uses the reported function to calculate th...
متن کاملSubjective Probability and Expected Utility, A Stochastic Approximation Evaluation
The topic of this article is stochastic algorithms for evaluation of the utility and subjective probability based on the decision maker’s preferences. The main direction of the presentation is toward development of mathematically grounded algorithms for subjective probability and expected utility evaluation as a function of both the probability and the rank of the alternative. The stochastic as...
متن کاملSubjective Probability ∗
We provide an overview of the idea of subjective probability and its foundational role in decision making and modern management sciences. We highlight the role of Savage’s theory as an organizing methodology to guide and constrain our modeling of choice under uncertainty, rather than a substantive statement subject to refutations by experimental or psychological evidence. ∗Prepared for The Wile...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Mathematical Psychology
سال: 1967
ISSN: 0022-2496
DOI: 10.1016/0022-2496(67)90049-1