ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING METHOD OF STATE STABILITY

In the article, authors propose a method for assessing and forecasting stability of state. The relevance work is due to complex military political processes taking place in around Ukraine, attempts at large-scale interference internal affairs (including by means), destroy Ukrainian statehood make country under total control, lack methodological apparatus that can be used assess state's ability withstand external threats preserve its own identity structural integrity. analyze content concept "stability", offer their interpretation this term identify factors significantly affect it. accordance with these factors, article presents hierarchical system indicators consisting two main groups characterizing state influences, contains allow capabilities country, level conflict potential, into account ethnic religious problems, economy, social spheres, law enforcement agencies counter threats, energy security corruption. Subject research. Assessment stability. Methodology. order obtain functions explicitly describe dependence on lower-level indicators, proposed approach involves use theory experimental design form training sample each followed processing using group consideration arguments. This demanding competence experts, but it allows obtaining dependencies directly calculate value which great importance preparation decision-making ensuring Ukraine's national security. an integrated stability, will possible both exploratory normative forecasts, increase validity decisions State. purpose. outlines provisions state, numerical assessment development over time, wide range covering civilian spheres also influences (destructive or positive). Results. general procedure calculations method, some results experiment confirmed efficiency approach, sufficiently high accuracy clarity obtained. show overall has declined since 2014, there reason believe managed maintain even gradually improve amid aggression.