Belief adjustment: a double hurdle model and experimental evidence

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract We present an experiment where subjects sequentially receive signals about the true state of world and need to form beliefs which one is true, with payoffs related reported beliefs. attempt control for risk aversion using Offerman et al. (Rev Econ Stud 76(4):1461–1489, 2009) technique. Against baseline Bayesian updating, we test belief adjustment underreaction overreaction model decision making process agent as a double hurdle agents inferential expectations first decide whether adjust their then, if so, by how much. also effects increased inattention complexity on updating. find evidence periods inertia interspersed adjustment. This due combination random adjustment; state-dependent adjustment, many requiring considerable change beliefs; quasi-Bayesian aggregate insufficient when does occur. Inattention, like complexity, makes less likely stated beliefs, while additionally discourages full

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Experimental Economics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1386-4157', '1573-6938']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09701-2