Bringing Transparency to Predictive Analytics: A Systematic Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods in Higher Education

نویسندگان

چکیده

Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack by systematically comparing two important dimensions: (1) different approaches sample and variable construction how these affect model accuracy (2) selection modeling approaches, ranging from methods many institutional researchers would be familiar more complex machine learning methods, affects performance stability predicted scores. The relative ranking students’ probability completing college varies substantially across approaches. While we observe substantial gains models trained on a structured represent typical enrollment spells robust set predictors, similar between simplest most

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: AERA Open

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2332-8584']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/23328584211037630