Can southern Australian rainfall decline be explained? A review of possible drivers

Abstract Southern Australia's rainfall is highly variable and influenced by factors across scales from synoptic weather to large‐scale circulation remote climate modes of variability. Anthropogenic change natural variability modulate these their interactions. However, studies often focus on changes in selected parts the system with less emphasis as a whole. As such, it difficult gain complete understanding how southern responds broad‐scale system. We step through existing literature long‐term synoptic‐to‐large‐scale atmospheric drivers form more story Australia. This process reveals that most robust observed winter decline consistent several changing climatic factors: decreasing systems, strengthening subtropical ridge, poleward shifts Hadley Cell Annular Mode, increasing frequency positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. In other seasons, particularly summer, may not agree changes, highlighting gaps our knowledge dynamics processes. Future work should research temporal‐ spatial‐scales, better jet interactions, influence stratospheric processes troposphere, instances contrasting trends Australian changes. article categorized under: Paleoclimates Current Trends > Modern Climate Change Detection Attribution Assessing Impacts Observed