Causation, Probability, and the Continuity Bind

Proving Causation: Probability versus Belief

Overlappings: Probability-raising without causation

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Probability Structure Preserving and Absolute Continuity ✩

– The concept of probability structure preserving mapping is introduced. The idea is applied to define stochastic integral for fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and to obtain an anticipative Girsanov theorem for fBm.  2002 Éditions scientifiques et médicales Elsevier SAS AMS classification: 60H05; 60H07; 60H15; 60B11; 28B20

Bounding the Probability of Causation in Mediation Analysis

Given empirical evidence for the dependence of an outcome variable on an exposure variable, we can typically only provide bounds for the “probability of causation” in the case of an individual who has developed the outcome after being exposed. We show how these bounds can be adapted or improved if further information becomes available. In addition to reviewing existing work on this topic, we pr...

Probability Theory and Causation: A Branching Space-Times Analysis

We provide a formally rigorous framework for integrating singular causation, as under stood by Nuel Belnap’s theory of causae causantes, and objective single case probab ilities. The central notion is that of a causal probability space whose sample space consists of causal alternatives. Such a probability space is generally not isomorphic to a product space. We give a causally motivated stateme...