CFSv2-based sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast skill over the contiguous United States

Heavy Daily Precipitation Frequency over the Contiguous United States: Sources of Climatic Variability and Seasonal Predictability

By matching large-scale patterns in climate fields with patterns in observed station precipitation, this work explores seasonal predictability of precipitation in the contiguous United States for all seasons. Although it is shown that total seasonal precipitation and frequencies of less-than-extreme daily precipitation events can be predicted with much higher skill, the focus of this study is o...

Observed and model-simulated diurnal cycles of precipitation over the contiguous United States

We analyzed diurnal variations in precipitation, surface pressure, and atmospheric static energy over the United States from observations and NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) simulations. Consistent with previous studies, the mean (1963-1993) pattern of the diurnal cycle of summer U.S. precipitation is characterized by late afternoon maxima over the Southeast and the Rocky Mountains and midn...

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part o...

The Frequency of Large Hail over the Contiguous United States

One of Stan Changnon’s abiding interests is the frequency and pattern of large hail occurrence. Stan started publishing papers in AMS journals on the occurrence of large hail in 1966. After that initial effort, Stan has published 27 papers in AMS journals alone. When other journals, such as those of the AGU, Conference Preprints, and Technical Reports are added, Stan has an amazing record of do...