Climate Variability and Change Affect Crops Yield under Rainfed Conditions: A Case Study in Gedaref State, Sudan

It is projected that, on average, annual temperature will increase between 2 °C to 6 under high emission scenarios by the end of 21st century, with serious consequences in food and nutrition security, especially within semi-arid regions sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed investigate impact historical long-term climate (temperature rainfall) variables yield five major crops viz., sorghum, sesame, cotton, sunflower, millet Gedaref state, Sudan over last 35 years. Mann–Kendall trend analysis was used determine existing positive or negative trends rainfall, while simple linear regression assess crop time. The first difference approach remove effect non-climatic factors yield. On other hand, standardized anomaly index calculated variability both rainfall period (i.e., years). Correlation multiple (MLR) analyses were employed relationships climatic Similarly, a relationship length rainy season results showed that maximum (Tmax) increased 0.03 per year years 1984 2018, minimum (Tmin) 0.05 year, leading narrow range diurnal (DTR). In contrast, fluctuated no evidence significant (p > 0.05) increasing decreasing trend. yields for all selected negatively correlated Tmin, Tmax (r ranged −0.09 −0.76), DTR −0.10 −0.70). However, had strong correlation sorghum = 0.64), sesame 0.58), sunflower 0.75). Furthermore, longer < direct most crops, Tmax, DTR, amount explained more than 50% (R2 0.70), 0.61), 0.54). Our call awareness among different stakeholders policymakers change yield, need upscale adaptation measures mitigate impacts change.