Coastal Ecosystem Vulnerability and Sea Level Rise (SLR) in South Florida: A Mangrove Transition Projection

We used static, elevation and land cover data to estimate sea level rise impacts (SLR) urban, developed lands coastal wetland systems in Everglades National Park the East West regions South Florida. Maps tables estimating potential state change open water were compiled through overlay analysis of elevation, cover, SLR masks with future projected using a transition threshold model. Analysis was based on 2–5-km-wide longitudinal band along SW SE coasts Florida where sea-level has no surface impediments inundation will likely cause coastline transgression migration. three different projections; 0.27 m (0.9 ft), 0.76 (2.5 ft) 1.13 (3.7 greater than current by 2070 estimated NOAA IPCC. Under projection 51% may be impacted. SLR, areas impacted 56.5 59.1%, respectively. Migration wetlands from their location into more inland response increased depths as function empirically derived marsh mangrove accretion rates also evaluated. With 2070, without accretion, 1,160 sq km became estuarine water. However, values 0.211 (4.1 mm yr –1 ) 0.55 (11 there only 349 41 km, low scenario mangroves able migrate while maintaining coastline. It under extreme that not compensate for loss everywhere.