Contrasting Population Projections to Induce Divergent Estimates of Landslides Exposure Under Climate Change

Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate Change

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios

Background Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods We collected observed daily time series of mean...

Avian distributions under climate change: towards improved projections.

Birds are responding to recent climate change in a variety of ways including shifting their geographic ranges to cooler climates. There is evidence that northern-temperate birds have shifted their breeding and non-breeding ranges to higher latitudes, and tropical birds have shifted their breeding ranges to higher altitudes. There is further evidence these shifts have affected migration strategi...

Variability in Temperature-Related Mortality Projections under Climate Change

BACKGROUND Most studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections. OBJECTIVES We assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulatio...

Multivariate Spatial Analysis of Climate Change Projections

The goal of this work is to characterize the annual temperature for regional climate models. Of interest for impacts studies, these profiles and the potential change in these profiles are a new way to describe climate change and the inherent uncertainty. To that end, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to simultaneously model the temperature profile for the four seasons of the year...