Control simulation experiment with Lorenz's butterfly attractor

Abstract. In numerical weather prediction (NWP), sensitivity to initial conditions brings chaotic behaviors and an intrinsic limit predictability, but it also implies effective control in which a small signal grows rapidly make substantial difference. The Observing Systems Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is well-known approach study where “nature” synthesized by independent NWP model run. this study, we extend the OSSE design simulation experiment (CSE), apply “nature”. Idealized experiments with Lorenz-63 three-variable system show that can stay chosen regime without shifting other, i.e., wing of Lorenz's butterfly attractor, adding perturbations Using longer-lead-time forecasts, achieve more perturbation size less than only 3 % observation error. We anticipate our idealized CSE be starting point for realistic using real-world systems, toward possible future applications reduce disaster risks. may applied other systems beyond NWP.