Cost Benefit and Risk Analysis of Low iLUC Bioenergy Production in Europe Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Extensive surfaces of land are currently under-utilized, marginal and/or contaminated (MUC) in many EU and neighbouring countries. In the past few years, scientific research has demonstrated that bioenergy crops can potentially render this profitable, generating income for local populations and, at same time, reaching goals new Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) without interfering with food production. The main purpose paper is to measure net economic returns by computing benefits costs low indirect Land Use Change (iLUC) biofuel production on MUC from perspective both private investors social welfare. A standard cost-benefit technique was applied analyse compare different advanced value-chains monetary terms. Productivity, feasibility green-house gas (GHG) emissions impact were assessed considered analysis. pathways cellulosic or second generation (2G) ethanol Giant reed (Arundo donax) Italy, electricity miscanthus, biochemicals spontaneous grass cultivated Lucerne (Alpha-alfae) sorghum biomethane Germany, 2G Willow (Salix viminalis) Ukraine. For risk assessment, Monte Carlo simulation applied. results indicated Italy Ukraine, although would allow positive yearly margins, investments will not be profitable compared baseline scenarios. work showed good profitability combined heat power (CHP) biochemicals. On other hand, negative Finally, enabled us identify range possible could attained once volatility factored in. While likelihood yielding remains lower than 20 percent, case studies Ukraine Germany higher certainty levels, ranging 49 91 percent.