Default Costs And Self-Fulfilling Fiscal Limits In A Small Open Economy
نویسندگان
چکیده
We revisit the link between risk of sovereign default and costs. Contrary to prior literature, we show that higher costs may result in probabilities, lower bond prices, fiscal limits are not pinned down by economic fundamentals. Government debt sustainability depends on private investment behavior, which is affected expectations about defaults capital returns. argue this feedback loop gives rise multiple equilibria. In `bad' equilibria, investors expect low returns; their tightens governments' constraints reduces probability repayment, validating investor pessimism. `good' optimistic choose investment; results future surpluses, raises repayment validates optimism.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Social Science Research Network
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1556-5068']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3787933