Deficiencies of Phenology Models in Simulating Spatial and Temporal Variations in Temperate Spring Leaf Phenology
نویسندگان
چکیده
Spring leaf phenology and its response to climate change have crucial effects on surface albedo, carbon balance, the water cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. Based long-term (period 1963–2014) in situ observations budburst date unfolding more than 300 deciduous woody species from 32 sites across temperate zone China, we conducted model-data comparison spatial temporal variations for spring calculated using modules that were embed into 10 existing ecosystem models. Our results suggested ORganizing Carbon Hydrology Dynamic EcosystEms Spatially Explicit Individual-Based performed best reproducing patterns phenology, but tended underestimate responding temperature warming, showing low interannual variability (IAV) sensitivity (ST). In contrast, performances Vegetation Integrated SImulator Trace Gases modeling IAV ST. BIOME3, Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, BioGeochemical Cycles, Community Model, Biosphere Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation Atmosphere Exchange Model failed reproduce both patterns. Using series (1960–2100) form Coupled Intercomparison Project Number 6 scenarios force modules, our highlighted large uncertainties predicting changes with warming climate, work is required deal deficiencies model parameters algorithms.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal Of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2169-8961', '2169-8953']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jg006421