Designing With Information Feedbacks: Forecast Informed Reservoir Sizing and Operation

The value of streamflow forecasts to inform water infrastructure operations has been extensively studied. Yet, their in informing design is still unexplored. In this work, we investigate how dam shaped by information feedbacks supporting the implementation flexible operating policies informed enable less costly reservoirs relative alternatives that do not rely on forecast information. Our approach initially explores maximum potential gain attainable searching and using most valuable lead time. We then analyze results? sensitivities existing synthetic biased forecasts. demonstrate our through an ex post analysis Kariba Dam Zambezi River Basin. Results show with perfect enables attaining same hydropower production dam, while reducing size associated capital costs 20%. A forecast-informed operation system can instead facilitate annual average increase 60 GWh production. This finding, extrapolated new planned dams basin, suggests could yield power benefits equal 75% current electricity consumption Zambian agricultural sector. use substantially reduces gain, showing ESP marginal designs are particularly vulnerable overestimation. Advancing may therefore become a asset for ongoing expansion basin.