Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

Production, Trade and Exchange Rates in Large Experimental Economies

We construct experimental economies for the purpose of studying market equilibration. The economies are the most complex laboratory economies studied to date and are “international” in economic structure. The economies have twenty-one markets and due to the fact that they have on the order of 50 agents, the economies are characterized by several hundred equations. In spite of the complexity and...

Long memory or structural breaks: Can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current oat?

Long memory or structural breaks: Can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current oat? Christopher F. Baum Boston College Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 USA John T. Barkoulas Louisiana Tech University Ruston, LA 71272 USA Mustafa Caglayan Koç University Istanbul, Turkey This paper considers two potential rationales for the apparent absence of mean reversion in real exchange rate...

Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Mechanism

Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate Adjustment Mechanism Laurence Copeland and Saeed Heravi We show that the behaviour of the real exchange rates of the UK, Germany, France and Japan has been characterised by structural breaks which changed the adjustment mechanism. In the context of a Time-Varying Smooth Transition AutoRegressive of the kind introduced by Lundbergh et al (2003), we sho...

Structural Change in Transition Economies: Does Foreign Aid Matter?

This paper addresses whether the initial declines in the manufacturing and real wages in transition economies were anything unexpected to justify policy reversal, and whether the “often-recommended” foreign aid would have helped them curb these declines in any significant way. It answers these questions with the help of a two-sector three-factor small open economy model and simulation exercises...

Nonlinearity In Exchange Rates and Forecasting