Ensemble of models shows coherent response of a reservoir’s stratification and ice cover to climate warming

Abstract Water temperature, ice cover, and lake stratification are important physical properties of lakes reservoirs that control mixing as well bio-geo-chemical processes thus influence the water quality. We used an ensemble vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic models driven with regional climate projections to calculate stratification, cover under A1B emission scenario for German drinking reservoir Lichtenberg. analysis variance method estimate contributions considered sources uncertainty on output. For all simulated variables, epistemic uncertainty, which is related model structure, dominant source throughout simulation period. Nonetheless, calculated trends coherent among five in line historical observations. The predicts increase surface temperature 0.34 K per decade, a lengthening summer 3.2 days decreased probabilities occurrence winter inverse by 2100. These expected changes likely quality reservoir. Similar be other comparable regions.