Extension and refinement of a stochastic modelling approach to assess ice-jam flood hazard

Abstract In the spring of 2020, town Fort McMurray, which lies on banks Athabasca River, experienced an ice-jam flood event that was most severe in approximately 60 years. order to capture severity event, a stochastic modelling approach, previously developed by author for forecasting, has been refined hazard and risk assessments mitigation feasibility studies, is subject this paper. Scenarios artificial breakage demonstrate applicability revised framework.