Forecasting Currency in Circulation in Nigeria Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Method

Nigeria is a country located in West Africa. It the most populous Africa, with population of about 211 million. federal republic three tiers government: federal, state, and local. diverse country, over 250 ethnic groups. This study aims to investigate forecasting currencies circulation (CIC) using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method (Additive Holt–Winters Model Multiplicative Method). The data are collected from January 1960 December 2022. focus primarily determine optimal approach while considering pertinent parameters which method, either multiplicative or additive best CIC Nigeria. Furthermore, offers prognostic insights regarding Three experiments were conducted different (α= 0.2, γ= δ= 0.5; α= 0.4, 0.3, 0.1; 0.1, 0.3) that randomly generated. experiment 0.1 was model for variable both Additive method. Based on comparison accuracy measures, this concluded outperforms all measures: MAPE, MAD, MSD. has significantly lower MAPE (5.97894E+00) compared (9.55758E+02). forecast it found currency continues increase as shows upper trend.