Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements

Measurements from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) form basis of direct numerical forecast simulations plasma convective instability in postsunset equatorial F region ionosphere. ICON data are selected and used to initialize force then test results one orbit later when revisits same longitude. Data IVM density drifts instrument MIGHTI red-line thermospheric winds simulation. also for irregularities (electrically polarized depletions). Fourteen datasets late March 2022, were examined. The correctly predicted occurrence or non-occurrence 12 times while producing false positive negative. This demonstrates that important telltales present state variables mechanisms irregularity formation captured by simulation code. Possible refinements strategy discussed.