Forecasting of solar activity by alternative methods

The Performance of Alternative Forecasting Methods for SETAR Models

We compare a number of methods that have been proposed in the literature for obtaining h-step ahead minimum mean square error forecasts for SETAR models. These forecasts are compared to those from an AR model. The comparison of forecasting methods is made using Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo method of calculating SETAR forecasts is generally at least as good as that of the other method...

Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its fluctuating nature an efficient use will require reliable forecast information of its availability in various time and spatial scales depending on the application. The current status of forecasting solar irradiance for energy generation purposes is briefly reviewed with respect to very short-term ...

Storm spotting. A step closer to forecasting disruptive solar activity.

Solar activity: nowcasting and forecasting at the SIDC

The Solar Influences Data analysis Center (SIDC) is the World Data Center for the production and the distribution of the International Sunspot Index, coordinating a network of about 80 stations worldwide. From this core activity, the SIDC has grown in recent years to a European center for nowcasting and forecasting of solar activity on all timescales. This paper reviews the services (data, fore...

Solar Radiation Forecasting Model

The prediction of hourly solar radiation data has important consequences in many solar applications (Markvart, Fragaki & Ross, 2006). Such data can be regarded as a time series and its prediction depends on accurate modeling of the stochastic process. The computation of the conditional expectation, which is in general non-linear, requires the knowledge of the high order distribution of the samp...