Forecasting Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Saint Lucia Using Nonparametric Statistics and Soft Computing Techniques

Climate change and its adverse environmental impacts are major concerns for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as Saint Lucia. In particular, the annual atmospheric temperature rainfall continue to receive a great deal of attention in Caribbean worldwide. Subsequently, looking at spatiotemporal elements meteorological factors with regard evolving environment, especially countries where tourism agriculture activities dominating, is essential evaluate climate prompted changes propose feasible adaptation techniques. The present study attempts examine provide findings on long-term deviations fluctuation over island St. Lucia using data last three decades (1990-2020). problem was analyzed soft computing techniques Gene Expression Programming (GEP) nonparametric statistical trend analysis technique Mann Kendall (MK) Sen's slope (Q) tests. results showed descriptive capabilities GEP output significance prediction tool when compared MK Q detailed analyses indicated that there no significant 30 years. However, during next 10 years, country will experience drought-like instances low volumes. Further island's mean increase rate 0.032℃ per year. due becoming warmer little rainfall, would require in-depth planning area energy consumption well mitigation measures potential impact increased storm can be correlated these climatic variabilities.