Gambits: Theory and evidence

Gambits are central to human decision-making. Our goal is provide a theory of Gambits. A Gambit combination psychological and technical factors designed disrupt predictable play. Chess provides an environment study gambits behavioral game theory. based on the Bellman optimality path for sequential This allows us calculate Q $$ -values where material (usually pawn) sacrificed dynamic On empirical side, we effectiveness number popular chess natural setting as require assessment set moves (a.k.a. policy) after has been accepted. analysis uses Stockfish 14.1 optimal -values, which fundamentally measures if position winning or losing. To test whether Bellman's equation holds in play, estimate transition probabilities next board state via database expert then Gambiteer following his methodology applied Stafford reverse Boden–Kieretsky–Morphy) other common ones including Smith–Morra, Goring, Danish Halloween We build research decision-making by proving irrational skewness preference within agents chess. conclude with directions future research.