Generating Projections for the Caribbean at 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C from a High-Resolution Ensemble

Six members of the Hadley Centre’s Perturbed Physics Ensemble for Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project are downscaled using PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates Impact Studies) RCM (Regional Climate Model). scenarios at long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial warming levels generated Caribbean six sub-regions annual seasonal timescales. Under a high emissions scenario, LTTGs attained mid-2020s, end 2030s, early 2050s, respectively. At 1.5 °C, region is slightly cooler than globe, land areas warmer ocean, later months, north south. The far western southern including eastern island chain dry (up to 50%). 2.0 drying intensify there reversal wet tendency parts Caribbean. Drying rainfall season accounts much change. There limited further intensification region-wide °C. Changes wind strength low-level jet may contribute patterns seen. implications urgent targeted adaptation planning