Generation of Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation-based ensembles
Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium’s limitedarea ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (B...
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Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...
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Since 2003 the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has been running various experimental convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for domains covering a large portion of the central United States during the warm season (April–July). In this study, the skill of 3-hourly accumulated precipitation forecasts from a large sample of these conv...
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Cool season precipitation plays an important role in freshwater supply over the Southwest United States, which is marked by heterogeneous topographic and hydrologic scenarios. More accurate precipitation prediction is highly desirable for both the public and hydrological model users. Numerous studies indicate that ensemble forecasting provides more skillful weather forecasts than a single deter...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Weather and Forecasting
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0882-8156,1520-0434
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-16-0199.1