Global desert variation under climatic impact during 1982–2020

Deserts are important landscapes on the earth and their variations have impacts global climate through feedback processes. However, there is a limited understanding of climatic controls spatial temporal deserts. Here, we use reanalysis datasets, land use/land cover (LULC) products CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) model outputs to calculate changing deserts during 1982–2020, estimate future trends Our results show that mean annual desert area over this period 17.64×106 km2, accounting for 12% terrestrial land. Desert areas decreased rapidly from end 1980s 1990s in North Africa Australia, followed by slow expansion early 21st century globally. Spatio-temporal arid characterized interdecadal fluctuations, clear regional differences dynamics aridity index (AI, used here as proxy drylands) areas. Statistical analyses reveal increased vegetation directly related reduction area, while potential evaporation, surface temperature humidity also significantly correlated with area. The relationship between wind speed varies regionally. simulations suggest will expand century, albeit at different rates under ssp245 ssp585 scenarios. expansions modelled be greatest Asia, those southern may reduce borders migrate northwards.