Grounding Risk Estimation in Inland Navigation with Monte Carlo Simulations and Squat Estimation

Abstract In inland ports, where access is done navigating along an estuary, river or artificial canal, the operation may be strongly conditioned by tide (in case it has enough wide run) water level in river. The variations imply restrictions on draft of vessels that can such ports. Siport21 been working for several years ports these characteristics, there no possibility to dredge waterway. alternative develop synchronization analysis tools, which allow identifying “operational windows” and maximizing transit operations. result takes advantage tidal run means adequate planning, so always underkeel clearance safety margin. Grounding risk estimation elaborated applying Monte Carlo method. A failure (grounding) function defined, considering propagation wave (water current), ship speed waterway, wind conditions, squat, other variables. Probability distributions all variables involved are considered, thousands random navigation conditions simulated. This allows estimate probability. methodology applied a practical port carrying out actions improve optimize its To do this, AIS data entire obtained from measurement sensors calibrated numerical prediction model, have used.