Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century

Abstract Arctic coastal erosion damages infrastructure, threatens communities and releases organic carbon from permafrost. However, the magnitude, timing sensitivity of increase to global warming remain unknown. Here we project Arctic-mean rate very likely exceed its historical range variability before end century in a wide emission scenarios. The roughly doubles, reaching 0.4–0.8 m yr −1 °C 2.3–4.2 TgC by century. We develop simplified semi-empirical model produce twenty-first-century pan-Arctic projections. Our results will inform policymakers on conservation socioeconomic planning, flux projections lay out path for future work investigate impact changing Ocean, role as sink, permafrost–carbon feedback.