Inference and risk measurement with the pari-mutuel model
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Inference and risk measurement with the pari-mutuel model
We explore generalizations of the pari-mutuel model (PMM), a formalization of an intuitive way of assessing an upper probability from a precise one. We discuss a naive extension of the PMM considered in insurance, compare the PMM with a related model, the Total Variation Model, and generalize the natural extension of the PMM introduced by P. Walley and other pertained formulae. The results are ...
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We explore generalizations of the pari-mutuel model (PMM), a formalization of an intuitive way of assessing an upper probability from a precise one. We discuss a naive extension of the PMM considered in insurance and generalize the natural extension of the PMM introduced by P. Walley and other related formulae. The results are subsequently given a risk measurement interpretation: in particular ...
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Recently, there has been an increase in the usage of centrally managed markets which are run by some form of pari-mutuel mechanism. A parimutuel mechanism is characterized by the ability to shield the market organizer from financial risk by paying the winners from the stakes of the losers. The recent introduction of new, modified pari-mutuel methods has spurred the growth of prediction markets ...
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The Pari-Mutuel model is a distortion model that has its origin in horse racing. Since then, it has been applied in many different fields, such as finance or risk analysis. In this paper we investigate the properties of the Pari-Mutuel model within the framework of Imprecise Probabilities. Since a Pari-Mutuel model induces (2-monotone) coherent lower and upper probabilities, we investigate its ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
سال: 2010
ISSN: 0888-613X
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2010.08.005