Initial Error Growth and Predictability of Chaotic Low-dimensional Atmospheric Model

Predictability Loss in an Intermediate ENSO Model due to Initial Error and Atmospheric Noise*

The seasonal and interannual predictability of ENSO variability in a version of the Zebiak–Cane coupled model is examined in a perturbation experiment. Instead of assuming that the model is “perfect,” it is assumed that a set of optimal initial conditions exists for the model. These states, obtained through a nonlinear minimization of the misfit between model trajectories and the observations, ...

Relationship between the Predictability Limit and Initial Error in Chaotic Systems

Since the pioneer work of Lorenz on predictability problems [1–2], many studies have examined the relationships between predictability and initial error in chaotic systems [3–7]; however, these previous studies focused on multi-scale complex systems such as the atmosphere and oceans [4–6]. Because large uncertainties exist regarding the dynamic equations and observational data related to such c...

Predictability error growth of turbulent flows

Recently, alternative viewpoints were suggested that is in contrast to the conventional picture of predictability error growth in the spectral domain. We survey key historical and current literatures and suggest that the traditional perspective has not been invalidated.

Atmospheric Predictability of the Martian Atmosphere: from Low-dimensional Dynamics to Operational Forecasting?

Since the work of Barnes (1980, 1981), it has been evident that Martian mid-latitude meteorology is commonly dominated by large-scale baroclinically unstable transient waves. Viking Lander data showed that such waves are strongly modulated by the seasonal cycle, apparently disappearing altogether during northern summer. During seasons around northern winter, however, they are typically very act...

Low Doses of Celecoxib Stimulate Human Endometrium Growth in A Three-Dimensional Culture Model