INTEGRATION OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING WITH STATE SPACE FORMULATION FOR BUS TRAVEL TIME AND ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A Survey on Bus Tracking System with Arrival Time Prediction
In major cities public buses serve as a main source for public transportation System. It has been found that much research work has been carried out in this field using GPS-GSM technology to detect the bus and GPS technology to extract the location of the bus. Taking these aspects into consideration we have proposed a Bus Tracing System with Arrival Time Prediction, by which the commuters can g...
متن کاملPrediction Intervals for Exponential Smoothing State Space Models
The main objective of this paper is to provide analytical expressions for forecast variances that can be used in prediction intervals for the exponential smoothing methods. These expressions are based on state space models with a single source of error that underlie the exponential smoothing methods. Three general classes of the state space models are presented. The first class is the standard ...
متن کاملA new adaptive exponential smoothing method for non-stationary time series with level shifts
Simple exponential smoothing (SES) methods are the most commonly used methods in forecasting and time series analysis. However, they are generally insensitive to non-stationary structural events such as level shifts, ramp shifts, and spikes or impulses. Similar to that of outliers in stationary time series, these non-stationary events will lead to increased level of errors in the forecasting pr...
متن کاملExponential smoothing for time series with outliers
Recursive time series methods are very popular due to their numerical simplicity. Their theoretical background is usually based on Kalman filtering in state space models (mostly in dynamic linear systems). However, in time series practice one must face frequently to outlying values (outliers), which require applying special methods of robust statistics. In the paper a simple robustification of ...
متن کاملExponential Smoothing Approaches for Prediction in Real-Time Electricity Markets
The optimal design of offering strategies for wind power producers is commonly based on unconditional (and, hence, constant) expectation values for prices in real-time markets, directly defining their loss function in a stochastic optimization framework. This is why it may certainly be advantageous to account for the seasonal and dynamic behavior of such prices, hence translating to time-varyin...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: TRANSPORT
سال: 2015
ISSN: 1648-4142,1648-3480
DOI: 10.3846/16484142.2015.1100676