Intraday return predictability: Evidence from commodity ETFs and their related volatility indices

Commodity Market Interest and Asset Return Predictability ∗

We establish several new findings on the relation between open interest in commodity markets and asset returns. High commodity market activity, as measured by high open-interest growth, predicts high commodity returns and low bond returns. Openinterest growth is a more powerful and robust predictor of commodity returns than other known predictors such as the short rate, the yield spread, the ba...

The Intraday Behaviour of Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Return Volatility: Evidence from DAX30

Essays on Return Predictability and Volatility Estimation

of the Dissertation Essays on Return Predictability and Volatility Estimation

Short selling and intraday volatility: evidence from the Chinese market

The implementation of margin trading and securities lending mechanism offers us a unique circumstance to analyze the impact of short selling regulations in China. We define the addition events as the stocks are included to the designated securities list and therefore can be sold short. By focusing on the 30 trading days around the addition events, the results document statistically significant ...

Predictability of Stock Return Volatility from GARCH Models

This paper focuses on the performance of various GARCH models in terms of their ability of delivering volatility forecasts for stock return data. Volatility forecasts obtained from a variety of mean and variance specifications in GARCH models are compared to a proxy of actual volatility calculated using daily data. In-sample tests suggest that a regression of volatility estimates on actual vola...