Is natural variability really natural? The case of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation investigated by a neural network model

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چکیده

Abstract Is Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation a genuine representation of natural variability in the climate system? Or perhaps is it strongly forced by external drivers? In this paper, data-driven attribution investigation has been performed for (AMO) behaviour past via machine learning technique, NN modelling. We clearly see nature AMO last 150 years, with strong contribution forcing coming from anthropogenic sulphates, which induces its typical oscillating behaviour. The following original application our model to future predictions shows that shall probably lose characteristic features. only way recover them consider an unrealistic increase sulphates under mitigation scenario, and possibly low-power solar regime. Due established influence on meteorological phenomena several regions world, results can be important better understand envisage scenarios.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Theoretical and Applied Climatology

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1434-4483', '0177-798X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04207-0