MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. (Chinese fir) is one of the main timber species in Southern China, which has a wide planting range that accounts for 25% overall afforested area. Moreover, it plays critical role soil and water conservation; however, its suitability subject to climate change. For this study, appropriate distribution area C. was analyzed using MaxEnt model based on CMIP6 data, spanning 2041–2060. The results revealed (1) minimum temperature coldest month (bio6), mean diurnal (bio2) were most important environmental variables affected lanceolata; (2) currently suitable areas primarily distributed along southern coastal 55% moderately so, while only 18% highly suitable; (3) projected would likely expand BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, MRI-ESM2-0 under different SSPs increased estimated future ranged from 0.18 0.29 million km2, where total attained maximum value 2.50 km2 SSP3-7.0 scenario, with lowest 2.39 SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) combination land use farmland protection policies more than 60% could be utilized 2041–2060 SSP scenarios. Although change having an increasing influence distribution, deleterious impacts anthropogenic activities cannot ignored. In future, further attention should paid investigation combined human activities.