Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider forecasts of the long-horizon average of a scalar variable, typically the growth rate of an economic variable. The main contribution is the construction of prediction sets with asymptotic coverage over a wide range of data generating processes, allowing for stochastically tr...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Review of Economic Studies
سال: 2016
ISSN: 0034-6527,1467-937X
DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdw003