Mimicking counterfactual outcomes to estimate causal effects
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Mimicking counterfactual outcomes for the estimation of causal effects
Large observational studies have become commonplace in medical research. Treatment may be adapted to covariates at several instances without a fixed protocol. Estimation or even definition of treatment effect is difficult in that case. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, etcetera. Thus, if a patient is doing fine, that could mean either that ...
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Harris, German and Mills (Children's use of counterfactual thinking in causal reasoning. Cognition, 61 (1996), 223± 259), following Mackie, argue that children make explicit use of counterfactual thinking in arriving at causal judgments. They showed that children as young as 3, in explaining simple mishap events, made reference to courses of action that a protagonist had rejected, when that cou...
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In this paper, we demonstrate that people’s causal judgments are inextricably linked to counterfactuals. In our experiments, participants judge whether one billiard ball A caused another ball B to go through a gate. Our counterfactual simulation model predicts that people arrive at their causal judgments by comparing what actually happened with the result of mentally simulating what would have ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Statistics
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0090-5364
DOI: 10.1214/15-aos1433