Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months

Mathematical models have been remarkable tools for knowing in advance the appropriate time to enforce population restrictions and distribute hospital resources. Here, we present a mathematical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model study transmission dynamics of COVID-19 Granada, Spain, taking into account uncertainty phenomenon. In model, patients moving throughout hospital’s departments (intra-hospitalary circuit) are considered order help optimize use resources future. Two main seasons, September–April (autumn-winter) May–August (summer), where pressure is significantly different, included. The calibrated validated with data obtained from hospitals Granada. Possible future scenarios simulated. able capture history pandemic It provides predictions about intra-hospitalary circuit over shows that number infected expected decline continuously May without an increase next autumn–winter if measures continue be satisfied. strongly suggests cases will reduce rapidly aggressive vaccination policies. proposed being used Granada design public health policies perform wise re-distribution advance.