Modelling Control Strategies Against Classical Swine Fever: Influence of Traders and Markets Using Static and Temporal Networks in Ecuador
نویسندگان
چکیده
Pig farming in Ecuador represents an important economic and cultural sector. Recently, the National Veterinary Service has implemented individual identification of pigs, stricter movement control mandatory vaccination against classical swine fever (CSF), which been prevalent since 1940. The information registered 2017 seems valuable for applying modelling techniques assessing risk dissemination animal diseases test strategies. Social network analysis (SNA) was used to characterise premises into categories, looking better targeting surveillance activities identifying higher targets. Network disease spread strategies over network, using a Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible SIRS model compare target selection high-risk nodes current traditional surveillance. Finally, temporal revealed general trends network's evolution. contained 751,003 movements with 6 million excluding slaughterhouses. A total 165,593 were involved (144,118 farms, 138 industrials, 21,337 traders 51 markets). On annual average, 75% (124,976) received or sent up one average 1.5 pigs. In contrast, 0.01% (166) made 1,372 movements, 11,607 Simulations on resulted CSF, reaching mean prevalence 29.93% without strategy. random strategy reduced 24.4%, while by 3.3%. When comparing static representation counterpart, causal fidelity (c = 0.62) showed overestimation 38% number transmission paths, even though it took 4.39 steps cross these approximately 233 days. characterisation acting Ecuadorian based emphasis, application can support redesign system. Minor changes could enable implementation risk-based surveillance, specifically at considering special attention markets traders.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Social Science Research Network
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1556-5068']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3935606