On the Way to Integrate Increasing Shares of Variable Renewables in China: Activating Nearby Accommodation Potential under New Provincial Renewable Portfolio Standard

More than 1.2 billion kW wind and solar power generation will be integrated in China by 2030. The new provincial renewable portfolio standard, officially implemented 2020, establishes an efficient bridge between rapid capacity growth limited accommodation capability. A data-driven prospect analysis framework was proposed to evaluate the activated potential under two kinds of nearby approaches explore completion this obligated quota from levels. Empirical results illustrate diverse prospects across regions. Particularly, it is hard for provinces complete their quotas merely via single approach: first one close energy resources but lacks flexible peak regulation capability Northeast Northwest China, other nationwide load center integration renewables Southeast, North, Middle China. Therefore, pathway former activate more either releasing system flexibility or substituting right, latter introduce trans-regional trans-provincial import power.