Population Prediction of Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities Based on Multiple Models

In recent years, the population growth rate has been gradually declining in China. As problem becomes increasingly significant, accurate prediction of development trends become a top priority, used to facilitate national scientific planning and effective decision making. Based on historical data spanning period 20 years (1999–2018), this article presents predictions populations 210 prefecture-level cities using Malthusian model, Unary linear regression Logistic Gray model. Furthermore, because gray model exhibited highest degree accuracy formulating predictions, study uses predict analyze future trends. The results reveal that gap between is widening, total urban shows pattern rising middle-tier (second-tier third-tier cities) high-tier (first-tier new first-tier low-tier (fourth-tier fifth-tier cities). From viewpoint geographical distribution, basically balanced northern part southern addition, slowing while are experiencing negative population, but skyrocketing growth. regional development, although integration strengthened over radiative driving effect large agglomerations metropolitan areas relatively limited.