Prediction Markets for Probabilistic Forecasting of Renewable Energy Sources

نویسندگان

چکیده

This paper demonstrates how a binary prediction market is capable of achieving probabilistic renewable energy forecast. In markets, participants trade shares associated with the outcome unknown future events (here, production, as random variable), and instantaneous price represents probability outcome. The focus this study to exploit informational value in forecasting. To end, three different methods forecasting have been considered trading agents market, aggregated output elicited from equilibrium finally, full cumulative distribution function possible extracted through regression analysis. proposed method applied test cases onshore wind farms Australia. simulation results suggest that performance superior individual models improved terms reduction electricity imbalance costs.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1949-3029', '1949-3037']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/tste.2021.3112916