Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability

Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability

We suggest a new nonlinear expansion of space-distributed observational time series. The expansion allows constructing principal nonlinear manifolds holding essential part of observed variability. It yields low-dimensional hidden time series interpreted as internal modes driving observed multivariate dynamics as well as their mapping to a geographic grid. Bayesian optimality is used for selecti...

Identification of Intraseasonal Modes of Variability Using Rotated Principal Components

Principal modes of variability of Martian atmospheric surface pressure

[1] An analysis of daily-to-interannual variability in the surface pressure field of the Martian nothern hemisphere as given by a Martian climate model is presented. In an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition, the dominant first two modes of variability comprise a zonal wavenumber 1 feature centered at 70 N latitude moving eastward with a period of 6 to 8 sols. This feature is a ba...

A Nonlinear Dynamical Perspective on Climate Prediction

A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction is outlined, based on a treatment of climate as the attractor of a nonlinear dynamical system D with distinct quasi-stationary regimes. The main application is toward anthropogenic climate change, considered as the response of D to a small-amplitude imposed forcing f. The primary features of this perspective can be summarized as follows. F...

Projection of Climate Change onto Modes of Atmospheric Variability

Two possible interpretations of forced climate change view it as projecting, either linearly or nonlinearly, onto the dominant modes of variability of the climate system. An evaluation of these two interpretations is performed using annual mean sea level pressure (SLP) and surface air temperature (SAT) fields obtained from integrations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled genera...